You're severely underestimating what Rogan actually wants. He's a smart enough guy to have done all this math, and yet he still went with Spotify. Why? Cause he probably doesn't care about money or even audience at this point. The man is set for several lifetimes (aka, his children are set for life and grandkids too probably). He's already talked to some of the most interesting people in the world, and yet he seems to enjoy himself the most when he's just talking with his comedian friends for 3 hours. I'm sure he figures if he could simply lock in a deal for $100-200M/year where he can talk to whoever he wants, say whatever he wants, and not have to do any of the business-side of the equation, he wouldn't care what potential he might lose out on -- that potential you outline probably doesn't matter to him at this point.